Tag Archives: iPhone

by | January 25, 2016 · 8:01 pm

Is Apple falling down from the tree?

I had two American favorite stocks in 2005. Google was one of them. Apple is the other one. As you may know, it has been ten great years while Apple went to be the biggest company in the world. Now, it is the darling of Wall Street. How long will that continue?

Apple will report FQ1 2016 earnings Tuesday January 26th, after the bell and it is a critical moment for Apple right now. The coming report will be highly scrutinized by investors because they are concerned about Apple`s iPhone sale.

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When I launched Apple in my portfolio in 2005, they didnt have iPhone at all. Since then the sale of iPhone has skyrocketed. But what now? There are signs that iPhone sales is slowing. We can see that many of Apples suppliers are declining and so are Apple`s orders.

Apple is also attacked by Qualcomms new weapon. Apples A10 chip for Iphone 7 will be built on TSMC`s 16-nanometer FinFET Plus technology, but it seems like Android devices will be built on more advanced 10-nanometer technology.

Qualcomm`s next-generation Snapdragon 830 processor (the successor to the Snapdragon 820 that is slated to appear in devices over the next couple of months) is planned to be launched in the beginning of 2017.

Its not only Apples suppliers that is concerning Apple`s investors. China is a big market for Apple and a slowdown in Asia in addition to a slowdown globally can hit the company hard. Not only that. It is estimated that the global demand for smartphones will decline and fall below 10%, and so will the iPhone sales. In other words it seems like we has reached a top.

But thats for iPhone. Apple has more than iPhone. Despite the fact that iPhone is Apples biggest money-maker, they also have Apple Watch, Apple TV and Apple Music in the same lineup. They are all new in Apples portfolio and Im most exited about Apple Watch, because I think it will be hard to replace iPhone with Apple Watch.

Apple`s revenue from smart phone was 66% in 2015 and their sales jumped 28% in its latest fiscal year. Apple Watch is a new product so it is expected to see that sale to increase. The price for Apple in 2005 was only $5. Now it is $100! Experts expect it will rise 40% in 12 months.

The stock is down about 30% since the top last year, with an EPS of 9,20. Market Cap is 556,72B with an P/E of 10,92. Estimize consensus calls for FQ1 EPS of $3,27 and revenue of $77,138 Billion, which is slightly higher than corporate guidance and Wall Street`s estimates.

Apple is still a profitable company and a popular brand among the younger generation, and with $200 billion in cash and manageable debt obligations, Apple will still be a popular brand.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 29, 2013 · 1:16 pm

Apple`s profit and margins slid

Last year, Apple`s earning rose 61% in september 2012, but fell this year for the first time in at least a decade. On a conference call yesterday Mr. Tim Cook said that fourth-quarter profits slipped roughly 8.5%. Earnings: 7,5 billion in Q3, per diluted share, 2013 (8,2 billion in Q3 2012). EPS:$8,26 in Q3, 2013 ($8,67 in Q3, 2012). Revenue is $37,5 billion. Gross margin came in at 37 percent compared to 40 percent in the year-ago quarter.

Right after the results was released, the stock fell as much as 5,1%. After the closing bell, Apple was trading at $529,88. It is down about 25% since the top in September 2012 following the debut of the Iphone 5. Apple is not a growth company anymore. I hope the holiday season can change that.

Apple sold 33.8 million iPhones, (record for the September quarter), compared to 26.9 million in the year-ago quarter. They sold 14.1 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 14 million in the year-ago quarter. Mac sales came in at 4.6 million, down slight from 4.9 million in the year-ago quarter.

Mr. Tim Cook reported its best quarter in education ever, generating over $1 billion in revenue on sales of iOS and Mac products, including iPads, which took a staggering 94 percent tablet marketshare in schools.

Apple have a huge competition from Samsung, Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Lower-priced products from Samsung are taking marketshares along with the other mentioned companies above. Q4 is a very important season for Apple, and Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook is planning to sell new IPhones and Ipads at the end of this year.

Apple have spent a lot of time in their inovation this summer, and they are exploring new product categories with “significant opportunities,” Tim Cook said on a conerence call today. They will release a new iPad Air on Nov. 1. Later on, they will follow up with their new iPad mini with a high-definition screen.

Apple is happy to go into the holidays with their new products like iPhone 5c, iPhone 5s, iOS 7, the new iPad mini with Retina Display and the icredibly thin and light iPad Air, new MacBook Pros, the radical new Mac Pro, OS X Mavericks and the next generation iWork and iLife apps for OS X and iOS. The new iPhone will be available in 100 countries by the end of the year.

Not only the competitors are pressing Apple on margins. The shareholders are giving them some pressure too. Investor Carl Icahn (The one I wrote about, selling 50% of his shares in Netflix) has publicly said he want Apple to initiate a $150 billion buyback to boost the company`s stock price.

Apple paid out $36 billion in dividends and buybacks in the past 5 quarter, and are now discussing what to do with their cash. News on that case will follow early in 2014. Apple`s cash dividend will be $3,05 per share of the common stock, and is payable on November 14, 2013, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 11, 2013.

Market participants will continue to look at the earnings this week, as well as the FOMC meeting that will be released on Wednesday. News today: Core Retail Sales/Retail Sales & PPI at 8:30am, CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 22, 2013 · 12:19 pm

The biggest gainer in S&P 500 in 2013!

Netflix exceeded most of the expectations yesterday with their business model for streaming tv and film service. In the third quarter, they added 1,3 million streaming subscribers in the U.S and that is the highest ever.

It`s funny to think about. Ten years ago, Netflix delivered the films only through DVD`s mailed to the customers, which made them the highest-performing stock on Nasdaq. Now the business model is totally different and more profitable.

Netflix is big in the U.S, but are growing outside of the country. They have a new agreement with Virgin and so far they have added 1,4 million subscribers for a total of 9,2 million. Investors are impressed and sent the stock up to $390 in after-hours trading. That`s 10%.

History tells us that this can be a very volatile stock. In 2003 Netflix was the highest performing stock on Nasdaq. They had solid results compounded by momentum. Now, they say it feels like 2003 euforia.

Despite the huge swings in the stock price since 2002 IPO ($8 down to $3 to $39 to $300 to $55 to $330) they continued to grow the membership every year fairly steadily. What they have made over the last 10 years is stunning. Netflix say they want to make the next 10 years remarkable. Earnings-per-share is 52 cents and the net income for the quarter reached $32 million and that is up from $8 million in 2012.

Investors paid close attentions to the number of subscribers because they have predicted that they could have 60 million to 90 million members in the U.S, and even more overseas. Yesterday, Mr. Reed Hastings (CEO), who frequently singles out HBO as the main competitor, hinted at a specific number it`s aiming for.

They have a long way to go to match HBO`s 114 million global member count. Mr. Hastings also talked about Netflix`s tv show like «House of Cards,» and the new and bigger hit «Orange is the New Black.» Mr. Reed Hasings (CEO) says that «Orange» will end the year as Netflix`s most-watched original series ever. The typical Netflix subscriber still spends a lot of time streaming repeats of TV shows.

More than 25% of the companies on S&P 500 are comming with their earnings report this week. Yesterday, I was looking for the earning from Netflix. The stock have soared this year and few investors expect the stock to pull back following its results on monday.

People want to see films. Watch movies and TV shows. They don`t want to spend money on burgers. McDonald’s fell 0,8% to $94,42. They warned global October sales could be flat. Apple rose 2,5% to a shareprice of $521,83 and was the largest winner on Nasdaq.

Guidance for Apple numbers from September 23 told us that it is sold over nine million iPhone 5cs and 5s`s in their first three days (SEC 8-K filing). Apple`s guidance results in EPS is between $7,23 and $8,09 for september quarter.

It is expected to see a revenue of $37,5 billions. Up 4,3%, which is above the guidence of $37 billion. Iphone should be over 50% of revenue and 65% of profits. I think the future is in the hi tech now. The tablet sale is just in the beginning of a new era. I look forward to Apple`s earnings report.

News today: Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate at 8:30am.

Reed Hastings

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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