Tag Archives: FED

Buy Gold or not

U.S. equities traded lower for the third consecutive trading session in 2014. This is the worst start for stocks since 2005. Nikkei was trading down for a second day on Tuesday. European stocks is going in the opposite direction. All the European indices is green right now.

The predictions about gold is mixed. Some hedge funds are buying gold now, and they are very bullish on this precious metal. Other market makers are bearish and say the price will fall down to about $1000.

Goldman Sachs in New York expect the gold price to decline to $1050 at the end of this year 2014 (report from Nov. 20). Gold prices increased from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed expanded its balance sheet through debt purchases. The interest rate was low and it was in a U.S recession. They did all this because they wanted growth. The record of the Bullion was $1,923,70. A record reached in September 2011.

We are probably at a crossroads here. Fed will start to purchase bonds to $75 billion (from $85 billion) this month. The Fed will try to reduce its QE in $10 billion increments over the next 7 meetings. The program will hopefully end in December.

It is probably best to sit and wait and have a look at the inflation before any decision on gold is made. The precious metal is still trading above $1200 which is a strong support.

News today: Trade Balance at 8:30am.

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Santa Claus rally

Nikkei rose on upbeat global growth signals. European shares and commodities fall before the Fed two-day meeting. The consensus still seems to be in favor of January or March for the first taper.

December is a better trading month than the others and better known as “the Santa Claus rally”. The markets has a tendency to go up the last 10 trading days of the year. Will this tradition continue this year, or will the Fed keep the markets grounded?

The Dow has gained an average of 1,7% since it was created in 1896. It is rising 77% during this seven-trading session period in December. That is much better than the 0,2% average gain in all other seven-trading session periods of the calendar.

The Fed has said it won’t cut stimulus until it sees signs of sustainable economic recovery. Unemployment has since fallen to a five-year low and third-quarter economic growth was stronger than forecast.

Is the U.S economy strong enough to start tapering now in December 2013? The FED has said it won`t start the tapering before it sees signs of a sustainable economic recovery.

The unemployment rate is now 7,0%. This is the lowest level since november 2008. This is encouraging news for the 11 million Americans who remain unemployed. 2013 is on the way to be the best year for job creation since 2005.

The market has a long way to go before it is healed from the recession, but unfortunately the job market still has a long way to go until it’s entirely healed from the recession. The meeting starts tomorrow. Let`s wait and see…. Do you belive in Santa Claus?

News today: Core CPI at 8:30am.

FED

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Market overview

European shares is up today, led by Aggreko with a bullish trading update. The European market is up despite the concern about the FED`s tapering plans this week. Much higher fear in Japan, while Nikkei sled -1,6%.

The S&P was down -1,65% last week. The worst week since August. Facebook (FB) went in the opposite direction and bucked the market trend lower, finished up +11,22%, trading at $53,32. Facebook will now join both the S&P 100 and the S&P 500.

Many investors are very satisfied with this bullish year 2013, but now all the investors eyes are on the Federal Reserve later on this week. The FED have a two-day policy meeting Wednesday.

FED is very powerful! Everything they say have a huge impact of the financial markets. The question now is whether they will continue QE or start to taper, the huge bond buying program that has made the massive mega-rally on Wall Street.

Look out for the brand news later on this week. The FED Statment will be launched at 2pm ET. Later on the same day, a FOMC Press Conference will be held at 2.30pm. This is very very very important news.

News today (all times are Eastern Times) : Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30am, TIC Long-Term Purchases at 9:00am, Capacity Utilization Rate & Industrial Production at 9:15am.

global-options

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Alan Greenspan talks

Asian markets are down today. Hang Seng is down -1,36%. Nikkei -1,95%. KOSPI -0,99%. Shanghai -1,25%. All the European markets are down today. Everyone is red. Markets are falling, and Yen strengthened against the dollar following a bad miss for U.S employment data yesterday. It drops on concerns about central-bank tightening and debt write-offs at banks.

ECB plans to stress test 128 top eurozone banks over the next year and ECB intends to complete the testes by October 2014. ECB plans to stress test 128 top eurozone banks over the next year and ECB intends to complete the testes by October 2014. It aims to build confidence in the financial sector by improving transparency and implementing “corrective action” where needed.

Mr. Alan Greenspan is out with a new book, worries about the U.S economy. In his latest book, “The Map and the Territory,” he is talking about a warning to the FED balance expansion that may unleash inflation. We can see a price acceleration with today`s FED`s balances unchanged, ranging from 3% per unnum to double digits over the next five to six years, he writes.

Nobody have talked about a higher inflation, but instead the inflation has been on a record low level. That`s why Mr. Alan Greenspan is worried. The FED can prevent this threat by selling the bonds, and take the money back and out of the economy.

But; the FED are confident in plan 2: The FED pays interest on the money that the banks hold on deposit, and when the economy is getting better, the FED can increase the interest rate to induce the banks to hold the money on deposit. That can eliminate the inflationary pressure.

If the economy unexpectedly moves to go wild on a high gear, any credit tightening will run into political opposition. We have seen that before. It is also possible that the inflationary pressures won`t build until the economy has gone into a higher gear. It is possible for the FED to stay against inflationary and political pressures at the same time if the FED do their job right. News today: Import Prices at 8:30am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am.

Alan Greenspan

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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