by | September 24, 2013 · 12:54 pm

Terrible week?

Most of the investors do wrong tings with their own portfolio right now. The future is very, very excited and I think we will see one of the biggest moves in a very long time. One of the biggests opportunities in decades.

It`s a lot of noice out there. The market we have today looks like the mid 90`s. That time, we saw a big rally. Bullish markets tend to go much higher then expected, and that can go on in a very long time. Now it is very similar.

In the mid 90`s we saw a rally because the bond market crached, and at the same time we saw a surge in interest rates. Money came from the bond market and got into the stock market. Bond hedge funds plummet.

Bond investors are running like crazy from bond funds now and $123 billion disappeared only in june this year. Today we see the biggest interest rates surge in at least 50 years. The growth is slow like it was in the mid 90`s. GDP was below 1% and China was slowing too. The volatility is very low.

It`s a lot of money on the way into the stock market. But investors will be more selective than never before. Stockpicking is the key. It seems to be very bad for weak stocks. Great stocks will do it much, much better. It will be a huge rally in superior stocks.

Europe`s largest economy, Germany, are growing faster now, and the second biggest economy in Europe, France, albeit marginally for the first time in nineteen months. It seems to be an upswing in the European markets right now.

Today I will look at these news:

S&P/CS composite at 9:00am

CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00am

It is the first day today that Goldman Sachs (GS), Nike (NKE), and Visa (V) are officially part of the Dow 30.

SPX is overbought and I see a rally in MACD. I think it will be a huge drop before february 15 2014. The drop can come earlier, but it depends on different things like Syria, Iran, QE or China to name something. Historically, the volatility is increasing from september to november. The week we are in now has a bad history. This week has been down seventeen times the last twentytwo years. It doesn`t mean it will happen again, but it`s something to keep in mind.

Take a closer look at the chart below. NYMO, or McClellan oscilliator, a measure of overbought/underbought conditions in the markets. It is at it`s highest since july 2011. At that point the market plummet 20%! It doesn`t mean that it will happen again, and I am not trying to make you afraid. It`s just statestics.

NYMO

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stock market

Tagged as

by | September 23, 2013 · 1:25 pm

Suicidal money-printing and inflation

Investors must find asset classes which must appriciate in value at a greater rate than the spiraling inflation from the printing money programs. One thing investors seek to do in bad times is investing in gold and silver. Humaity`s shield against predatory inflation and crime.

If a company print more shares, then the price of the shares will plummet. Let`s say you have shares in a company that prints more and more shares, the shares you have will at least be worthless. You will start to sell your shares as soon as possible, before it`s too late. If the banks do the same, like printing more money, the fiat currency must plummet in value (puchasing power). This is inflation!

We saw this hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. It is possible to delay its effects, but never possible to prevent this money printing from destroying the value of its own paper. At the end; it worked for Weimar republic! The banks now continue to ramp-up at an exponential rate. Banks in Europe use words like «unlimited» and banks in US use words like «open-ended».

We know the banksters must destroy their own fiat currency, and when they do, the value of these precious metals will probably not increase in value? This is something we need to have in mind. Currency dilution is not a theory. It is a simple relationship of arithmetic.

Most of the novice of investors understand the consept of dilution when it comes to shares in a company, but none of them understand exactly the same thing that is going on in the fiat currency market. Currency-dilution is the same as share-dilution in virtuelly every respect. Keep that in mind.

Have a look at the Fedeeral Government Debt and Primary Budget Surplus, 1912 – 2012 (percent of GDP);

Fed debt

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Quantitative Easing

Tagged as

by | September 20, 2013 · 11:35 am

“Quadruple Witching”

The news from the FED was good news for the markets. As you already know, the FED will continue to print money and that is stock, commodities and bond markets. More fresh money into the markets means more money into stocks, commodities and bonds.

A new FED chairman/woman will take place early in 2014. When is the tapering going to take place? It should be now, but it didn`t start now, and I don`t think it will be before the next FED chairman/woman is on place. In the meantime; investors are trying to figure out when it will happen, because it will affect the markets.

Options programs expires today, and that happens four times a year. Equity options, stock index futures, stock index options and single stock futures are expiring too. This moments tend to move the markets, but sometimes it only goes sideways. This happenings is called “Quadruple Witching”.

I will keep an eye on the crude oil today. Trading range for crude oil has been between 102 and 110. It is time for a breakout because this trading range has been a sideways trading range for eight weeks now.

Technical resistance in Gold are at $1400. Support at $1307. Right now the price is $1364. I will look for breakout on this targets, and a close above $1400 are bullish. I see a strong support on $1307. Gold have been in an downtrend for a long time now.

Take a close look at the SPY index. MACD is bullish, but the RSI is high. Normally when it breaks the upper bollinger band, it`s a game changer. You can see in the chart how it worked back in may. Next week I will have a very special history about next week. In the meantime, I will spend this weekend trying to figure out what FED people are thinking right now.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Commodities, Stock market

Tagged as

by | September 19, 2013 · 1:06 pm

Rally in Gold

Once the news about the surpricing «no-tapering» was known, the US dollar dropped sharply and the crude oil moved sharply up. So did the gold market. December Comex gold was last up $32.80 at $1,342.50 an ounce. December Comex silver last traded up $0.706 at $22.48 an ounce.

The FOMC members do not belive that the economy in the US is healthy enough to begin winding down QE, and they are worried about the rise of the interest rates choking off the fledgling economic recovery.

As long as the unemployment rate remaind above 6,5 percent, the FED still want to keep the short-term rates near zero. It`s not because more people are finding jobs in the US, but because fewer people are looking for work we see a decline in the unemployment rate.

With no change in the policy, we saw markets rallied and volatility evaporated. The special thing this time is that the indexes was at the all time high. DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and NYSE all went up. Futures and VXX fall 4%.

News to follow today:

Unemployment Claims at 8:30pm,

Existing Home Sales at 10:00am,

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00am

Take a look at the last candle stick in the gold index below. What a nice rally for day traders!

Rally in Gold

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Commodities

Tagged as ,

by | September 18, 2013 · 9:56 am

Beginning of the end of QE?

The FED started its two day monetary meeting yesterday, and today is the day for the big news, the most important news in a long time, and the market consensus is that the FED will begin to rein in its stimulus program. Investors expect the FED to reduce its bond purchases by $10 billion a month. From $85 billion to $75 billion a month.

This tapering is expected and the equity market may not move so much from here. Nor should the goldprices move so much, because so far in september we have seen a huge sell off in the goldprices. The tapering is largely priced in.

In my TA earlier with the headline: «where is the bottom?», I see a higher high, and a higher low. 50% retracement is at 1307. A great support. I will not be surpriced if the goldprices might rise after the FOMC meeting today.

I will pay attention to the FOMC Statement & Fed Funds Rate today at 2:00pm, and FOMC press conference at 2:30pm. Other important things to follow today: Building Permits at 8:30 and Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30.

Ben Bernanke is using the expected tapering as a way to exit his FED Chairmanchip. To reduce the QE he will argue that his money printing program has a positive impact on the market, and the size of the move is symbolic. So, this is the beginning of the end of quantitative easing?

Nope. The debt is too high. That`s why FED is printing money. They use QE to finance the federal budget deficit. The debt is so high and there is not enough buyers in this world to buy all the bonds. If the FED stopped to buy these bonds by QE, the bond market in the US would crash, and the interest rates would go straight up to heaven!

QE will never end.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Commodities, Stock market

Tagged as ,