Category Archives: Stocks

by | February 11, 2015 · 6:11 pm

Apple & First Solar

Apple has been one of my absolute favorite stock for over ten-year now, and the company has right now become the first U.S company to close with a market cap of more than $700 billion. Market cap today is 720,14 billion.

Apple is now twice as valuable as Microsoft ($349,6 billion), and has nearly doubled the market cap to the previous worlds biggest company Exxon Mobile ($379,01 billion). Exxon is not a green company, but Apple is and that`s where the future is.

Apple solar

Apple`s CEO Tim Cook told investors a year ago that they need to «get out of the stock» if they only care about profits because what he really cares about is the climate change. Tim Cook said yesterday that the climate change is real. He also said;

«Our view is that the time for talk has passed, and the time for action is now. We`ve shown that with what we`ve done.»

All of Apple`s data centers are now powered by renewables.

Wind power has long been cheaper than solar, but solar power is the future. According to IEA (International Energy Agency), solar will become the biggest single source of electricity by 2050. The price of solar has been declining much faster than wind, and once the solar is cheap enough it will become mainstream.

Some investors have a 12-month average target price of $132,56 and the highest target was $165. If Apple continue to rise in market value it would exceed $960 billion. Investor Carl Ichan said the stock price for Apple is cheap and expect it to grow further. The stock is now trading at $123,89, up 1,54%.

Apple is the most popular luxury brand in China, and what do you think will happen when the brand goes mainstream?

First Solar is trading at $48,89, up 0,70%. Many investors have a hold on that stock now. Revenues fell 29,7% and that`s faster than the average of 9,8%. That hurt the bottom line and decreasing earnings per share.

Cash flow is also down by 112,5% and debt-to-equity is 0,05 which is also lower than the average. It doesn`t look good right now for First solar. Their return on equity is also below its industry average. it`s below S&P 500 too.

The stock was gaining in after-hours trading yesterday and increased nearly 2% on heavy volume after Apple`s solar power announcement. Price earnings is 18,43. EPS: 2,66.

It`s panels are still far behind that of their competitor SunPower (SPWR). First Solar is cost-competitive compared to the rest of the industry and they have made a huge breakthrough. They said in an announcement;

“it has set yet another world record for cadmium telluride (CDTE) photovoltaic (PV) research cell conversion efficiency, achieving 21.5 percent efficiency certified at the Newport Corporation’s Technology and Applications Center (NYSE: TAC) PV Lab.”

This makes First Solar as a clear industry leader in cadmium telluride PV technology.

 

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 9, 2015 · 11:56 pm

Coupons plummeted -30% AHT

Coupons (COUP) will plunge tomorrow. Down -31% AHT. Coupons.com Incorporated operates a digital promotion platform that connects great brands and retailers with consumers. The company has over 2,000 brands from more than 700 consumers packaged goods companies (CPG) and many of the grocery, drug and mass merchandise retailers use its promotion platform to engage consumers when they are choosing which products they will buy and where they will shop.

coupons.com-logo

The company delivers digital coupons to consumers, including coupons and coupon codes, and display advertising through its platform, which includes its Web, mobile and social channels, as well as those of its CPG`s, retailers and its network of approximately 30,000 third-party websites, or publishers, that displays its coupon and advertising offerings on their sites.

Last year was a very successful year for the company and they continue to grow. They delivered 32% revenue growth over last year, with solid momentum in all areas of their business. Total revenue for the fourth quarter last year was $60,0 million, compared to $52,6 million for the comparable period in 2013.

GAAP net loss for the fourth quarter 2013 was $1,7 million, which included $7,8 million in stock-based compensation expense. GAAP net income in 2013 was $1,5 million, which included stock-based compensation. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter 2014 was $8,3 million, compared with $5,3 million for the fourth quarter 2013.

Retailer iQ continued to drive consumer engagement on mobile devices. Over 70% of the Retailer iQ platform usage is via mibile. Other mobile initiatives in 2014 included their partnership with Samsung. The launch of Card Linked Offers and additional enhancements to their popular Coupons.com app.

Their outlook for the first quarter in 2015 is total revenue in a range of $52,0 million to $54,0 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $1,0 million to $3,0 million.

For the full year 2015, their total revenue is expected to be in the range of $275,0 million to $290,0 million. They anticipate a stronger growth rate in the back half of 2015 as compared to the first six months of 2015 due to the anticipated Retailer iQ volume ramp.

Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2015 is expected to be in the range of $40,0 million to $50,0 million, reflecting significant margin expansion over last year. As of December 31, 2014, Coupons.com had $201,1 million in cash and cash equivalents and generated $11,5 million in cash from operations in the year.

They have a strong revenue growth, a non-cash burning model and som positive things going on, but the shares are still priced at 5 times Price to sales and 4 times Price/book. A stock to put on the watch list.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 5, 2015 · 5:20 pm

GoPro after the bell tonight

GoPro is set to announce the results of its holiday quarter after the bell tonight, thursday 5th, 2015. What can we expect from the action-camera maker this time?

GoPro peaked at $98,47 in September last year and have been falling since the correction. Just like Twitter. The stock is down 46,6% and about 14 million shares were shorted as of Jan 15.

Citi has cut its GoPro target to $59 from $94. The stock is trading at $52,56 right now. Shorters have flocked to the equity with about 29% of GoPro`s float sold short. Also two-thirds of covering analysts rate the stock a «hold» or worse. 12-month price target consensus is $79. That`s 54,1% premium to current trading levels.

gopro-hero4-black

GoPro equities is down, recently hit by Apple`s new action-camera patent. Despite the negative cuts and short interests right now, the success of GoPro`s hardware business remains robust.

Last quarter GoPro came in with an earnings per share of $0,69. A growth of about 55%. Consensus from the Wall Street for earnings and revenue is $0,70 per share and $580,3 million. The stock jumped 13% last time when they released a stong guidance for fourth quarter sales of $550 to $580 million.

I wrote about GoPro before their IPO last summer, and when they went public they said that GoPro is a «media» company. What? A media company? Yes, they said so, but I don`t think they are there yet. They do not have any income from that segment, but I am exited about their new report. I will look for some news on this case.

No doubt that YouTube will help the user engagement. So will partnership with NHL, a GoPro channel on Virgin America in-flight entertainment, and channels like LG smart TV`s and Xbox platform. All of they will contribute.

GoPro is developing new consumer drones and this is probably here their R&D is spent? They have doubled their R&D to $42,4 million. The drone market is growing and sales in this market is expected to double to $11,5 billion in the next decade, and that can boost the GoPro shares.

GoPro shouldn`t be afraid of Apple right now. Apple want to reach out to the mainstream market with they products, and those action-camera`s is not there now. Nor GoPro is there right now. Maybe those action-camera`s will never be a mainstream product?

I think the reason for that is many, but price can be one of them. Spending thousands on this action-camera is probably not something for the average consumer and so far it seems like this is mainly something for the pro athletes and other extreme-sports enthusiasts.

One of the most shorted stocks will reports earnings after the bell tonight. Any surprise tonight?

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 4, 2015 · 6:45 pm

Twitter earnings

Twitter will report earnings after the market close tomorrow, February 5th, 2015. The stock is down since the market correction in october last year. Down about 40%. Investors are concerned about slower growth, and estimates are as low as they`ve ever been compared to the Wall Street consensus.

The estimates this time will come in-line with Wall Street expectations, rather than beat by a few cents per share as investors have gotten used to. Last quarter was not a good one for Twitter. The stock dropped down -13% as Twitter posted an earnings miss against the investors. They disappointed with MAU`s guidance.

twitter logo bird

It`s very important for a company like Twitter to have a lot of followers being active, and Twitter had 284 million monthly user accounts at the end of the third quarter. That`s 23% up year over year. By comparison, Facebook had 1,39 billion monthly active users (Q4). That`s an increase of 13%.

User activity is more important than billions of users on your platform. How many have a Facebook account, but don`t use it? This is why MAU is so important. Timeline views increased 14% YoY, but timeline views per MAU`s fell 7% last quarter, and that doesn`t matter so much as investors will watch the interaction between active users and timeline views.

Twitter are focusing more on «ad revenues per thousand timeline views» as others have different measures like revenue per user. Target marketing can be easier on Twitter than Facebook as the platform is for the pro`s, and it will be difficult to compare Facebook and Twitter on this case.

Facebook will have more appeal for the masses than Twitter. Twitter is better used for news and financial services and I`m in doubt that Twitter can build a mainstream platform like Facebook did over years. Expectations for Twitter is probably too high?

Twitter traded at $30 last summer and that`s close to its IPO price, but it have bounced and look like a growth stock right now.

Timeline views is $4,28 in the U.S and $0,84 outside the U.S, and advertising revenues per thousand timeline views increased by 83% YoY on Q3. It came in at $1,77.

The caution in the estimates this time may be a positive for Twitter than it were for Facebook last week. Small earnings beat could be a catalyst to the upside. Investors are looking for 88% revenue growth this quarter which is down from the triple digit gains Twitter has posted since its IPO. Earnings are expected to come in at 6 cents per share, which is all time high.

Twitter, tomorrow after the market close, February 5th, 2015.

 

 

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by | February 2, 2015 · 10:10 pm

Apple is the best luxury brand in China

Apple is the biggest tech company in the world and have the greatest brand in the West. The latest report told us that Apple sold more phones like never before. A big brand in the West, but how is the brand doing it in China?

The Hurun Research Institute released the Hurun Best of the Best Awards 2015 (http://www.hurun.net/en/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=9604) last week, based on the results of the Hurun Report Chinese Luxury Consumer Survey 2015. This report shows us that Apple beats Lous Vuitton, Hermes, Gucci, Chanel, Dior and Samsung in a survey of China`s wealthiest shoppers.

Apple is now ranked as China`s most coveted luxury brand!

Think different

This is a survey from the individuals whose net worth is above 10 million RMB or $1,6 million. Apple is on top for both men and woman, and is the preferred brand for gifting by China`s richest. Hermes was the winner last year, and Burberry and Prada dropped out of the Top 10 list this time.

Best Brand for Gifting by Men

Brand         % of respondents
1   Apple    20,30%
2   LV         13,40%
3   Gucci   6,80%

Hurun Report Chairman and Chief Researcher Rupert Hoogewerf said, “The government’s crackdown on luxury gifting continues to have its effect, with luxury gifting down a further 5% year on year, taking it to 30% over two years. Travel retail continues to change the dynamics of luxury in China, with 7 out of 10 luxury goods bought by Chinese now being bought overseas.”

Best brand for gifting by woman
Brand             % of respondents
1   Apple       18,90%
2   Chanel     13,20%
3   LV             10,20%

The preferred gift for Chinese millionaires for men is Watches, overtaking red wine as a category. Red wine had a bad year, and dropped down to third. Second on the list is consumer electronics, as travel vouchers continues to show a strong rise for the third year running.

A little bit different at the woman list, as Jewelry is at the top of the list and (of course) Fashion took the seconds place, followed by consumer electronics. Watches is the most wanted product as a gift in China, and this is good news for Apple as they are planning to launch their new watch soon.

Spring Festival, widely known as Chinese New Year in the West, is the most important traditional festival, and most important celebration for families in China. Most Chinese have 8 days off work, and the Chinese New Year starts on Thursday 19 february and end on 5 March.

2015 is the year of the goat.

«The upcoming Chinese New Year would be the peak of gift giving in China,» Hurun research said, and Apple has become the most eye-catching gift brand this year.»

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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