Category Archives: Stock market

by | March 5, 2014 · 2:11 pm

Market Update

Nikkei rose +1,20% after comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin eased worries about military action in Ukraine. We also saw a big bullish move in the U.S markets yesterday. It was so green and beautiful.

European shares are steady today and commodities like gold and oil is trading down today. It seems like the U.S markets will open up today. Not bad after the bullish race yesterday: Nasdaq was up +1,75%, while S&P 500 went up +1,53%. The DOW is trading at 16,395,88, up +227,85, which is up +1,41%. Wow!

It is difficult to predict the future for currencies and oil. That`s because it is all about politics. Investors don`t like war, and what Putin or Obama says or do will have a huge impact of the financial markets.

Reports today:

08:15 AM ET ADP Employment Report
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
02:00 PM ET Beige Book

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 4, 2014 · 12:12 pm

Stocks rebound

We are in a positive territory again. Stocks up and commodities down. Gold is down -0,81% to 1,339,30. Copper is down -0,41 to 317,45. Crude Oil (Brent) is down -1,27% to 109,79. But Silver is up +0,17 to 21,27.

 

What Putin and Russia did was expensive to Russia. The Russian stock exchange (MICEX) plummeted after Putin declared the right to invade Ukraine. MICEX fell $58,4 bln from friday to monday, but are trading up again today.

 

The cost of the Winter Olympic games was $51 billion, held in the southern city of Sochi. In other words; the decision to invade Ukraine was more expensive for Russia than the whole Winter Olympic games.

 

Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops to turn back to the base and stop all military exercises. That is music in the investors ears, wich is now less nervous and the stock market is turning up again.

 

CAC 40 is up +1,34%. FTSE 100 is up 1,08%. DAX is up 1,03% and FTSE MIB is up +1,71%. Warren Buffet say war is a buying opportunity, because money in it self will lose value. Other investors say commodities like gold is a safe-heaven bet.

 

Tesla (TSLA) don`t care about wars. Trading up +2,13% yesterday and seems to continue up today. Tesla is up +619,3% (1 YR). So far in 2014, Tesla is up 70,1%. What a great company. It seems like the new safe-heaven is Tesla!

money2

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

 

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by | February 24, 2014 · 1:42 pm

Expensive oil shale revolution

Asian shares fell today and the Japanese yen rose as the growth in Chinese home prices eased for the first time in 14 months. Tokyo`s Nikkei index fell 0,2%. Tokyo stocks are also down, while the activity in its major export is declining.

 

European stocks and the Euro got a boost on Monday as the German carmaker Volkswagen came with a disappointed outlook with limited gains. Right after Viktor Yanukovich was ousted rom the presidency in Ukraine, the country`s dollar bonds skyrocketed, and the hryvnia currency fell.

 

On the commodities front, Brent crude is down -0,15% to $109,68. Gold is up for a third week in a row, to $1,334,10, up +0,79%. Silver is up 0,76%, to $21,98 and Copper is down together with the markets, to 322,00, down -1,23%.

 

Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is pursuing strategic alternatives for its oilfield services division. The Oilfiesld Services generataed revenue of $2,2B last year. The investor Carl Icahn own 10% of the shares in Chesapeake Energy. Rumors say he is seeking a cash bid of up to $40 a share.

 

Rising natural gas prices could help the company to profit off a plan to revive the maligned Haynesville shale play, where it gambled billions of dollars six years ago. The rigs they have could boost daily rates for the U.S land drilling company.

 

Chesapeakes Energy`s plan would increase the number of Haynesville rigs 25% – 50 by the end of this year. Renewed gas drilling could drive up margins for U.S rig contractors. CHK have spent a lot of money in oil shale drilling, so higher demand will help then in the future.

 

It will be interesting to see who buyer will be in CHK. Is it gonna be Icahn, Exxon Mobil or ConocoPhillips? All of them are potential buyers while European majors disqualify themselves. Carl Icahn sold half of his stake in Netflix last year. He have success with investments in Herbalife (HLF) and Apple (AAPL) too.

 

Selling half of his shares in Netflix gave him a profit of $800 million. Carl Icahn started in 1980`s as an activist investor and there has never been a better time for activist investing than today. Activist involvement is necessary to ensure the competitiveness of corporate America. Chesapeake Energy is more of a restructuring play right now. CHK will probably continue to sell itself piece by piece.

Reports today:

10:00 AM ET CB Consumer Confidence

 

CHK

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 18, 2014 · 2:18 pm

Earnings reports

Nikkei rose 3,13% today. What a jump! This jump is based on good news for Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ kept monetary policy steady and maintained its upbeat assessment on the economy. It also decided to extend three special loan facilities.

It is mixed in Europe and it seems like the U.S markets will open up today. Gold is trading down -0,34% at $1314,50. Silver is down -0,03%, trading at $21,41. Copper is up +0,32%, trading at 327,50.

Earnings reports to follow today: Coca cola (KO) is reporting for the quarter ending December 31, 2013. Consensus earnings per share is $0,46. This is a 2,22% increase compared to the earnings for the same quarter last year.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) is reporting for the quarter ending December 31, 2013. The companies consensus earnings per share forecast is $0,17. This is a 1600% increase compared to the same period last year. Price to earnings for NCLH is 26,90, while the industry ratio is 22,10, which means NCLH have a higher earnings growth than their competitors.

I look forward to the earnings report from Tesla (TSLA) tomorrow. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending December 2013. Consensus Eearnings per share forecast for the quarter is $0,04. EPS for the same periode last year was $-0,78. A great jump!

tesla

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 13, 2014 · 2:14 pm

Reports today

Nikkei slid -1,79% and Europe is in red territory today. Down today after rising up some days now. Europe is down because of some disappointed earnings from blue-chips companies.

New reports today is among others; retail sales which is Business inventories that are the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity.

Inventories tend to rise when economic conditions are strong; since sales are rising at the same time, the inventory-to- sales ratio may remain stable, or rise at a very slow pace. Inventories tend to drop when economic conditions are weak; since sales are falling at the same time, the inventory-to-sales ratio may remain relatively stable. The I- S ratio then begins to rise as sales fall more quickly than inventory growth. Data Source: Haver Analytics.

Market Consensus before announcement

Business inventories in November were up 0.4 percent versus a strong 0.8 percent rise in business sales, the strongest sales gain since May, that left the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.29. Retail inventories, the second largest component of the report and the fresh data in the latest report, likewise showed no change with the stock-to-sales ratio steady at 1.43.

Jobless claims
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.

Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

Market Consensus before announcement

Initial jobless claims for the February 1 week fell a sharp 20,000 to a lower-than-expected 331,000. The 4-week average, at 334,000, trended 15,000 below the month-ago comparison.

Continuing claims, however, did not show improvement. Continuing claims for the January 25 week rose 15,000 to 2.964 million with the 4-week average up 26,000 to a 2.986 million level that was more than 100,000 above the month-ago trend.

Reports today:

08:30:00am ET USD Jobless claims
08:30:00am ET USD Retail sales

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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