Tag Archives: Employment

Trump`s tariff dollars are rolling in

Trump`s tariff is working, and the tariff dollars have started rolling into government coffers, according to the Treasury Department. The Department of Homeland Security deposited $15 billion in «customs and excise taxes,» the category that includes tariffs in April through the 24th og the month.

This is up from $9.6 billion in all of March.

The tax collection data shows that April was the month Trump`s campaign of tariffs started to make a real financial impact. Trump`s April 2 «Liberation Day» tariffs against all U.S. trading partners ranged from 10% for many countries to 145% for Chinese products.

Trump`s stated goals for his import taxes include raising revenue to fund the government, restoring U.S. manufacturing by protecting it from foreign competition, and pressuring foreign governments to make trade deals favorable to the U.S. Economists have warned the tariffs are likely to drive up the cost of living, and risk plunging the economy into a recession.

According to Peterson Institute, President Donald J. Trump`s new tariffs could generate trillions of dollars in new federal government revenue over a decade, but the net gain would be reduced by the measures` damaging effects on the U.S economy and the other economies likely retaliation.

Under the tariff rate, the U.S would see lower GDP, investment, employment, and real wages over the following decade than otherwise, i.e., than without the tariff increase, and higher inflation over the initial two years.

The U.S sectors hit hardest would be agriculture, mining, and manufacturing because of their relatively high reliance on foreign demand for their exports. The harm would be amplified by retaliation from trading partners.

Trump said in an interview with Fox News today that tariff revenue will eliminate income taxes for people making less than $ 200 K. Trump wants to cut all income taxes, but will start with those who earn less than 200 K. This is good news for the middle class. Lawmakers are now working to pass the final budget bill.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Hawkish Fed can make the biggest rate hike in 28 years on Wednesday

Investors don`t like higher rates. Normally, the higher the rates go the lower the stock market goes. The Fed needs to do something with the inflation, and raising rates is a tool they use, and this year they seem to be very aggressive.

In March, the Fed raised the fed-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, and that was the first increase in three years. Two months later, they raised the rates by another half-point. The Federal Open Market Committee has a meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, so what now?

Experts claim the rate hike can be 50 points, but it can also go to 0,75% or as much as 1,00%

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

Nasdaq is already in a recession, and S&P 500 jumped into that territory a few days ago. Investors fear the Fed will be more aggressive than expected, as they are opting for the first three-quarter-point increase in the Fed-funds rate since 1994. That was 28 years ago.

Raising the rate 75 points or more is not what we often see, and the last time we saw that happen was in November 1994. The Fed hiked rates many times that year to try to fix the inflation. The problem for the Fed is that if they raise the rates too much and too fast, a recession can occur.

The Fed will look at Unemployment, GDP, and inflation. So, where do we go from here? The Fed Funds futures are now at a rate of 3,05% for December 2022, and it will peak at 3,65% for July 2023. As you can see, there is more hawkish Fed to come.

Will the Fed sacrifice employment and growth to bring down inflation? The higher the rate is, the more expensive the money is for borrowers. This means that people will save more as they borrow less. That can lead to slower growth and lower prices and inflation.

The risk here is that this will lead to a recession. Corporations’ earnings will fall, and so can the stock market. Let`s listen to FOMC and Powell on Wednesday.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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