The Dance of death

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The Dance of Death

Illustrations for this article are taken from the series of paintings created by Kaspar Meglinger between 1626 and 1635 known as “The Dance of Death”. The paintings are under the roof of Lucerne’s Spreuer Bridge (completed in 1408) and bring forcibly to mind the transitory nature of life on earth.

I just wanted to show you this picture because of time we are living in right now, and when it comes to the financial market, we can see that the market today have some similarities to the market in 1987!

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Gold price

I started to have close look at the gold price in 2005, and I have watched the price every day since that time. I am very excited about the gold price, and ask my self how high can the price go? You see; the gold price have always been a great hedge against the stockmarket.

Investors don`t like war, terrorism and chaos. The market have hugh challenges at the moment, and we live in a difficult time which is the most dangerous time in the capital history. We had the financial crises in 2008, but the market bouched back and we are at the ATH (all time high) levels again. What now?

There are two kinds of schools out there; one that don`t belive in gold and one that really belive in gold. The trading range for gold have now been between 1500 and 1700 area, but never breaking out to 1900.

The central bank has indicated that its current economic forecasts warrant policy rates remaining close to zero for at least another two years and that it stands ready to expand its balance sheet further if needed,” Goldman’s Garzarelli wrote. “We have built a third round of long-term asset purchases (‘QE3’) into our baseline, although that is, of course, contingent on sub-trend growth in the near term.

While Goldman Sachs did not discuss the implications of QE3 for the gold price in the report, history suggests it would be quite favorable for the price of gold. Richard Russell, a long-time gold bull and author of Dow Theory Letters, presented his case for higher gold prices.

“When chaos reigns, people look for certainty,” Richard Russell wrote in a recent letter. “When all is lost, only one item stands supreme and has been supreme for thousands of years. That item is gold…

Russell went on to say that “At $2,000, the next objective would be $2,500, and from there $5,000, and from $5,000 – $10,000. As gold marches higher, it’s playing the death knell for fiat money. And every central banker knows it.”

They talked about it on CNBC a few weeks ago. They say if bonds dropped, the stock market would start to increase. So far, that hasn`t happend. We are in a correction and people are worried about the sluggish economy, but here is the thing;

If people don`t feel confident about the stock and bond market, they should do only one thing:

Buy gold!

Not yet, because it takes some time for the goldprice to go up again after a correction, and many people are scared of gold. It is not so much action in the gold market now, but a year from now, people will probably buy gold like carzy.

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In a world of international stability, a walking dead economy, and an overvalued stock market going nowhere gold will make more and more sense to investors as time goes on. People will see it as a safe haven. Especially when inflation explodes on us thanks to the deficits and QE bond buying programs – that now with another war have even less chance of coming to a real end.

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The stock market

The stockmarket can be a volatile market in September and october as the Congress debates whether to authorize a military strike against Syria. Treasuries and emerging markets have been roiled by worries over what the FED is going to do later this month. The Obama administration’s wan`t to punish Syria because of their attach with chemical weapons against civilians, and a senate vote is likely to come nest week.

The SPX 500 fell in august by 3,1 percent, rebounded by 1,4 percent in the first week of september. DJI rose 0,76 percent and IXIC gained nearly 2 percent. VIX fell 7 percent for the week, its largest weekly decline since july. VIX is at the level of 15,85 now, and are now back at the average level and the so-called «fear gauge».

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Syria and Commodity prices

Libya is killing children with gas, and the rest of the world is not interesting in sitting back and look at it without doing something with it. Especially not Obama. He want`s to do something about it, and he want`s to do it right now.

The question is; what impact will that have on the financial market?

Two years ago, Obama supported the rebels in Libya and killed Gaddafi. Now it is total chaos in that nation, and they are not able to produce a drop of oil to sell to the rest of the world. The oil prices will continue to go higher, and what happens in Syria will not affect the oilprices on the international market. Oil and commodities will continue their trend and go higher, and investors are still bullish.

We have a correction in the market right now, and this will probably continue for a while, no matter what`s going on in Syria. At some point it is all about psycology. People will start to sell in panic, and as you know, september and october is stormy months in the financial markets.

Commodities and gold stocks made a peak in 2011. It has been a downtrend for a couple of years now, and they seems to have bottomed this summer. Now it looks like this is taking off again, and that is not because of what`s happening in Syria, but it is all because of the printing money strategy by the FED, plus the coming inflation.

If you wonder how to deal with the market now, take a look at the CRB index:

CRB index

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