Author Archives: Ket Garden

by | October 7, 2013 · 1:40 pm

Green friday

It`s optimism in the stock market again. People belive the lawmakers will solve the dept-ceiling problems. China rebound and BDI is increasing. Everything looks great. That`s in the long term. Right now the futures is down about 1 percent.

What an end of the week. Everything was green. Dow Jones was up 0,51 percent, to 15,072,60. The S&P 500 climbed 0,71 percent to 1,690,50, and Nasdaq rose up 0,89 percent to 3,807,75. 5,2 billion shares canged hands on U.S excanges, and that is 9,6 percent below the three-month average.

People belive that the lawmakers will reach a deal to end the budget impasse. That`s why we see the excanges is green now. The investors are very optimistic, and 6,4 days is the average of the days the spend to solve the problems in capitol hill.

S&P 500 is up 19 percent so far this year and from it`s 2009 low, it is up amazingly 155 percent. VIX dropped 5,3 percent today and are now down to 16,74 percent. The equity volatility gauge has fallen 7,1 percent so far this year.

China is back too, and now it seems to be a good time to invest in South East Asia. The industrial profits rose 24,2 percent in August this year. In addition; I see Baltic Dry Index has broken it`s 200 day moving average. That is good news for the economy.

Gold is still a little bit above 1300, and gold have not reacted on the shutdown earlier since 1976. The duration shutdwon has varied from one to twentyone days. Two years ago during the dept- ceiling, the gold rose from $1500 in july to $1800 in august 2011. A nice safe-heaven rally.

There`s no news to watch out for today or tomorrow. What I am looking for this week is what`s happening in capitol hill. It`s up to the republicans. People expect to see a solution and that`s why they are so optimistic. This will be an exciting week.

Markets up

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 4, 2013 · 12:19 pm

Twitter IPO

In september, Twitter announced it had plans to submit documents to the US SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission). They wanted to go public but at that time they didn`t reveal anything about their IPO plans. Yesterday they made it`s S-1 filing. Wow!

Twitter has been valued at about $10 billion dollars. But who are the guys behind this micro-blogging site success? Evan Willians (co-founder), has 12 percent stake. Peter Fenton (board member), has 6,7 percent stake. Jack Dorsey (also a co-founder), has a 4,9 percent stake, and Twitter CEO Dick Costolo, with 1,6 percent.

The ticker code for Twitter is planning to be TWTR. According to the S-1 filing, Twitter is trying to raise $1 billion, and I don`t think they will have any problems to find investors to do that. The big question now is how many share are they going to print, and what will the share price be?

We all remember the listing of Facebook last year. Startet on $38 and plummeted to $17,73. Now the stock have made a comeback and are above $50. What a great bull. So far this year the Facebook stock is up 84,76 percent. YTD it`s up 120,85 percent.

Twitter will change the marketing rules, like Facebook, LinkedIn and Google. We can see it in their revenue. Last year Twitter`s revenue was up amazingly 198 percent! At the same time the net loss decreased by 38 percent!

The revenue for the first 6 months this year was $253,6 million. Up from $122,4 million in the same periode last year. Net loss for the fist 6 months this year was $69,3 million. Most of the money comes from advertising, and their products are promoted tweets, promoted accounts and promoted trends.

Daily they have 500 million tweets. Twitter have 200 million montly active users and 100 million of them is daily active users. What marketing managers can ignore so many users? We can expect the revenue to continue to rise up to the sky. The only way is up.

Institutional shareholders who have more than 5 percent is Spark Capital, Benchmark, Rizvi Traverse, Union Square Ventures and DST. Twitter started seven years ago, and without the investors who have raised hundreds of millions of dollars, we wouldn`t have twitter today.

In an interview from 2007, the co-founder Evan Williams (41 years old) say this about the service: «a no-brainer» for «social animals». It`s fun to write about billionaires and share it with the rest of the 99,99%!

twitter_newbird_boxed_blueonwhite-11

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 3, 2013 · 12:17 pm

Netflix up 485,8% YTD

The markets can crash as early as october 17. If that happens, we will see 16 states disappear from USA. Yes, I said disappear. And Florida is one of them. What we see now is the most dangerous time in the captial history. But don`t lose your focus! Search for the winners. Where is the bullish stocks?

As I told you september 26, Facebook was a hot stock. I showed you how this stock has doubled since june this year. Now, I want to show you another stock that has been doing it great.

Netflix is a great stock. Up 1,9% yesterday. 49,3% last three months, and amazingly 485,8% last twelve months. What a nice shiny bull! Who said you can`t earn money in the stock market? In addition; the stocks I am talking about now is blue chips. Pretty good stocks!

But what now? Will the journet for Netflix continue to rise up to the blue sky? Netflix have competitors, and the biggest competitor is probably Amazon. In june this year they doubled their streaming library from 2012. Now they have over 40.000 streaming titles.

Other competitors are Dish network`s, Blockbuster, Hulu, Redbox with Verizone, and now Target which is panning to get on the market. No doubt; Netflix has the strongest brand image, but the competitors intention cannot be ignored.

Netflix`s subscriber base is better, the quality is better and that in mind, Netflix has an advantage over the competiotors. Netflix is trying to expand in Europe with it`s streaming service. Amazon can leverage its deal with Viacom in Europe and they are placing greater emphasis on kids focused programming wich is the most watched TV genre.

Most of the people don`t care about the shutdown, but what if you shutdown Netflix? Wow. People would act like crazy. If the shutdown goes on in weeks and months, the growth in the USA will decline. That is not good for the companies and Netflix. GDP will also decline.

Watch out for these news today: Unemployment Claims & Final GDP at 8:30am, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. I`m adding the chart for Netflix as you can see below. This is what I call an awesome shine bull!

NFLX

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 2, 2013 · 12:55 pm

Gold fall

It`s not a rush to safeheaven. Gold falls and it`s below the very important psycological support at $1300! People thought that if we saw a shutdown then the strong support at $1300 would be a great chance to buy, but that is not the case now.

So far, silver is down 3,5%, with copper and other base metals drops about 2%. China is a big buyer and they have holiday all this week, and that is a huge lack of demand. People seems to be interesting in raising cash too.

Gold is below the 100 day moving average ($1339), and silver is also below the 100 day moving average ($21,52). Next levels for the gold is $1290 and if that is broken, the next level is $1271. December Comex gold was last down $37.40 at $1,289.90 an ounce.

Today, I will look at these news: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 8:15am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks at 3:30pm

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 1, 2013 · 12:21 pm

Government Shutdown!

The VIX was up 10% yesterday and 10% on friday. Now it is at a high level. After the markets closed, the S&P was down only 0,6%. The S&P now have a quarterly gain of 4,7%. I will follow the vix very close this week. Normally, when the vix is so high, we will see a big sell off in the stock market. Washington D.C have a huge impact of the worlds stock exchange now.

The federal government will shut down for the first time in 17 years as the Congress failed to break a bitter budget standoff over the presidents health care law. Asian markets rise despite shutdown.

This is the first US government shutdown in 17 years. Next date to have a look at is October 17. USA won`t have enough money to pay all of it`s bills sometimes between Oct. 22 and Oct.31. 800.000 federal employees is out of work today. Millions of people are to work without pay. The US army will still be at work. The police will still be on the streets. Markets seem unbothered by that.

As the shutdown in well know, investors will focus on thirt-quarter earnings reports. According to Factset data, the stock prices of the S&P stocks rise and the earning growth are trending in the opposite direction. The estimates for the third quarter call for only 3,2% growth. Down from 3,8% in the second quarter. Stock prices follow earnings, so that can prove problematic!

News today: ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00am. Tomorrow, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at 3:30pm. Looking forward to that. It seems like the vix are rising too late compared to S&P. As you can see below, the vix is now below 17, but looking back to may this year they goes in opposite direction.

VIX 30.09.2013

SPX 30.09.2013

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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