Tag Archives: deflation

Is this an Amazon killer?

Gold is still below $1300, trading at $1,295,40. Up today +0,37%. Silver jumps +0,73% to $19,58. Crude Oil (brent) is down today -0,43% to $109,86, together with Copper which is down -0,21% to $308,15.

Nikkei was in a green territory today, trading at 14,429. Up +0,17%, also European markets are trading lower today. Investors hate war and some are worried as the Ukraine crisis deepens. The Euro Zone`s blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index slid -0,5% while the DAX is down -1,12%.

amazone

Amazon (AMZN) will open in a red territory today. About -2%. Amazon reported Q1 EPS of $0,23 (like forecast). Revenue for the quarter came in at $19,74 billion. That`s above consensus of $19,42 billion.

Amazon said in a report yesterday that Q2 2014 revenue will drop down to about $18,1 – 19,8 billion versus consensus of $19,03 billion. “We get our energy from inventing on behalf of customers, and 2014 is off to a kinetic start,” said founder and CEO, Jeff Bezos.

The delivery cost has been rising since 2009 and Amazon want to take more control over their increasing cost. With Amazon Fresh, they will deliver the goods direct to the customers and also control their customers shopping experience.

Millions of Amazon customers don`t know this and Amazon is growing at a faster speed than UPS and FedEx who are responsible for shipping the majority of Amazon`s packages. Last mile, as they call it, will revolutionize how shipments are delivered to millions of customers, they said.

Amazon will start to deliver on Sundays in the U.K. This is a smart move I think, because it lowers the cost and make it difficult for their customers in the same market. Like Alibaba who is planning to go public in a very short period of time.

Based on gross trading volume, Alibaba actually outsells Amazon and Ebay combined! They are more than just an e-commerce company. In addition, they now have a banking system without government intervention.

Many will be surprised to hear that this China-born innovator holds around 50% of China`s mobile and online payments market. Alibaba`s payment system is called Alipay and syncs directly with its B2C and C2C commerce sites, Taobao and Tmall. This is impressive.

Last year they entered the banking industry, but how is that possible without China`s government, a communist state that controls loans, interest rates, and all the banking system? It will be a great battle out there when Alibaba enters the U.S market.

Amazon is doing something right with their logistics and service I think, and what customers are looking for is low price and great service, delivered fast. Oops! Did I say low price? That is deflation and we don`t want that, do we?

Reports today:
09:55 a.m EST Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Low inflation in Euro zone

The yen is weaker today, but Japan`s Nikkei is trading up at its three-week high. A nice day, but it is the worst quarter performance for Nikkei in about two years. It’s also a «window dressing» as the books close for the fiscal year-end today. Nikkei rose to 14,827,83, up 0,9%.

Janet Yellen

The inflation in Europe is at its lowest since November 2009. The question now is what ECB (European Central Bank) will do to stop this threat of deflation in the currency bloc. It`s far from the deflation we saw in Japan in early 90`s, but it is a clear sign of a weak economy.

ECB will probably cut the interest rate on the meeting on Thursday, but because of this year`s late Easter, they will probably wait until the next meeting which is in June this year. It`s still a case for easing.

That`s why we see the European markets trading up today to a three-week high. There are growing speculation that China will start to stimulate its economy too. This is music in investors ears, and not only European shares are up today.

It seems like the U.S markets will open up today too. That`s a nice, green and positive territory. Right before a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. She is scheduled to speak in Chicago at 09:55 a.m EST.

Investors will listen to what she have to say about interest rates. Last time Yellen spoke about the possibility of an earlier-than-anticipated increase in rates, the equities dropped. This is the last day in march, and the S&P 500 is nearly flat this month. Up 0,5% for the quarter.

Reports today:

09:45 a.m EST  Chicago PMI
09:55 a.m EST  Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Market update

Nikkei ended down to a 2 1/2 month low, while the yen rose. It`s very mixed in Asia. Some red and some green numbers, but in Europe it is different. They are all down and they are very red on emerging market worries. Gold is up +0,52%, trading at $1248,60.

This is how it will be now I think. Up and down. A volatile market. Right after the FOMC statement, we saw the market went down, but there was no panic. The volume was low and the U.S market went up yesterday. Today, It seems like the U.S market will start in a red territory.

It is the last day of January today, and it is headed for the worst january in Europe since 2010. What I will focus more about now is inflation, stagflation and deflation. Printing a lot of money should lead to growth and inflation.

But so far, we see a slow growth, low inflation and worries about deflation. There are two camps out there. One that expect inflation (some predict hyperinflation) and one camp that expect deflation. Who are you gonna listen to?

shinybull_for_sitesite-7

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

 

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BIG Apple

The stock markets are sliding down but this is not the end of the world. There ain`t no doubt; the bear is here! Yesterday Nasdaq tumbled -1,08%, while Apple plummeted -7,7% in after hour trading. Dow slid -0,3%.

This is how it probably will be in the stock market now. Up and down, or what we call a volatile market. That`s why it is so important to know about stock picking. How to pick the right stocks, and that`s why I wrote about it last week.

In my opinion; U.S stocks is not cheap, so it is important to know what to do before any decision is made. The European stocks is twice as cheap as the U.S stocks. How is it going with Apple?

Apple reports yesterday:

iphone sales is $32,5B (+6% vs 17% in FQ4).

ipad sales is $11,5B (+7% vs -13%).

Mac sales is $6,4B (+16% vs -15%).

iTunes/software/services revenue is 4,4B (+19%).

iPod sales is only $973M (-55%).

78% of Apple`s cash/investment balance ($159B) is offshore. The iPhone sales is up +40% in Japan. Sales in China is up 20%. Europe is flat, while Americas sales is only +1%. Tim Cook didn`t say much about buybacks in face of Carl Icahn`s ongoing campaign. $7,8B was returned via dividends/buybacks. Apple need to release something new now, and I am not talking about a bigger screen or a different color. I am talking about innovation. Come On Apple: “think different”.

Revenue: $57,59B

FQ1 EPS: $14,50

Expects FQ2 revenue of $42 – $44B.

How is the inflation? It is rising, but it is difficult to see it. Some people expect inflation and some expect deflation. Both camps see increase in general prices like visible money and credit prices. Hyperinflation is expected, but deflation is probably the biggest problem in the future in the long run. I think Janet Yellen will push the QE-button if the deflation ghost is here. As you can see; despite the QE programs, the growth is so far very slow.

If the Fed starts its tapering, how will that affects the emerging markets? Half of the global GDP comes from the emerging markets, and that moves the other markets in the rest of the world.

It seems like money is on the way back to emerging markets as the Fed announces their tapering. Let`s wait for the FOMC statements later on this week.

Reports today: Core DurableGoods at 8:30am, S&P/CS Composite at 9:00am, CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00am.

Apple

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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